November '22 Chat -- A gravy train? A gravy boat? Its ALL gravy!!!!

[Chevy1925]

I feel like a guaranteed $64,000 savings by paying off your mortgage is a pretty good investment. Better than anything you're gonna do anytime soon. Other then playing high risk and high reward in the market. Thats the only way I see you making that kind of money. I'm not sure how accurate this is but I kind of picture it as inflation is 8.3%. You're mortgage is 4%+. Just a break even your investments need to be maken you 13%.


Ya that how it works as far as I understand. I was more talking about that a option if you lose your job.

BUT its going to take 6.5 years to replenish the 93k he just put into the house and then another 4.5ish years before he sees the 64k in interest savings. So about 11 years to see a 64k gain. the inflation part isnt something id plug into the equation based on what i was saying earlier. But either way, is that time worth it? only Jason can justify it.

And then there is the fact of "why rush". what are you gaining by doing it? its still going to take a long time before you see that money. recession could be in 3 months, could be in 2 years and even if we base if off inflations which im not accounting for in anything, we could be at a 6% recession rate. if we played the short game and hit a recession sooner than later, what would you be looking at then?

btw, none of this is meant to be read into more than face value. im genuinely looking at your side, dozer and trying to see what you see before i answer back. i very well could be missing something. its good shit!

 

[Chevy1925]

what I like about this is it is guaranteed. if I take that same $94k that I would use to pay off mortgage then I would need an average of 5.2% interest over the 11 years to make the same $64k. but I would need to relay on the market to stay positive. and I would still owe the same $64k in mortgage interest. so did I really get ahead?

I'm not 100% positive but I believe my IRA was averaging around 8% and was setup for aggressive growth. but most of what was gained over the last 5 years is all gone. so we better have a great comeback in order to make up the loss. it's a fairly new IRA as it was something I created by moving the funds from a profit sharing plan at another job into it. it's about 5 years old now. only has about $25k in it now but got up to the low 30s before the crash. so I think that was about $7k in 5 years from I think it was $22k when I opened it. that puts it about 8%

your first paragraph kinda beat me to the punch on my post above lol. its going to take you 11 years either way and when the market is generally a 10% profit, it would make up for it. it also shows you have almost 5% in wiggle room on profit over 10 years which is awesome odds.

as for the second paragraph. Dont look at what you lost, look at your average. there will be peaks and valleys and you have tons of time to even those out before migrating to "safe" stocks. where i get concered id when im throwing money in but stocks are continually costing me far more than im putting in. then i ahve to make some decision. but by the numbers you posted, over the 5 years, did you actually loose money invested into it, not potential profits. so from that 22k to the 25k you are now, look at how much you have put in over that 5 years. if you are not investing anything into it and you are still up 3k over 5 years, thats over a 10% ROI. i you are adding funds each month, that only compounds the 10%. but again, thats only if you havent been adding in funds through that 5 years. doing that changes thing depending on how much you are contributing.

 

[2004LB7]

your first paragraph kinda beat me to the punch on my post above lol. its going to take you 11 years either way and when the market is generally a 10% profit, it would make up for it. it also shows you have almost 5% in wiggle room on profit over 10 years which is awesome odds.

as for the second paragraph. Dont look at what you lost, look at your average. there will be peaks and valleys and you have tons of time to even those out before migrating to "safe" stocks. where i get concered id when im throwing money in but stocks are continually costing me far more than im putting in. then i ahve to make some decision. but by the numbers you posted, over the 5 years, did you actually loose money invested into it, not potential profits. so from that 22k to the 25k you are now, look at how much you have put in over that 5 years. if you are not investing anything into it and you are still up 3k over 5 years, thats over a 10% ROI. i you are adding funds each month, that only compounds the 10%. but again, thats only if you havent been adding in funds through that 5 years. doing that changes thing depending on how much you are contributing.

yeah, not really seeing it as I lost money but more as my totals in the account lost some. I'm basically back close where I started so not upside down. my mother keeps telling me I need to pull it all out so I don't loose any more of my money. I have to keep reminding her that I haven't lost anything yet. everything I put in is still there. she doesn't understand the concept it seems.

regardless of what I end up doing. I'll probably wait at least a year to see how the economy plays out.

 

[Dozerboy]

BUT its going to take 6.5 years to replenish the 93k he just put into the house and then another 4.5ish years before he sees the 64k in interest savings. So about 11 years to see a 64k gain. the inflation part isnt something id plug into the equation based on what i was saying earlier. But either way, is that time worth it? only Jason can justify it.

And then there is the fact of "why rush". what are you gaining by doing it? its still going to take a long time before you see that money. recession could be in 3 months, could be in 2 years and even if we base if off inflations which im not accounting for in anything, we could be at a 6% recession rate. if we played the short game and hit a recession sooner than later, what would you be looking at then?

btw, none of this is meant to be read into more than face value. im genuinely looking at your side, dozer and trying to see what you see before i answer back. i very well could be missing something. its good shit!

Like I said I hate paying interest and you have to account for inflation. I like a guaranteed $64k in savings. Then he also has an extra $720 a month he can start investing.
You have very valid points and in the long run the odds are in your favor. Even at the markets average 10% returns you take away 4.25% in interest payments and min 3% inflation. Your looking at 2.75% gains. That 2.75% just isnt enough for me to dump everything in the market. Maybe do both... The only right answer is what Jason is most comfortable with. For sure that last thing he should be doing is sitting on that money in his savings for much longer. Seriously don't wait a year to make a decision.

I'm sitting on quite a bit of money in my savings right now waiting on the midterm elections to be final. Once they are I most likely will be investing in the market hoping to take advantage of some gains.

Unless some outlandish things happen just right and Trump ends up president here shortly. I doubt we will see any decent gains soon. Best we can realistically hope for is the Republicans take the house and senate. No that's not because of my political bias. That's straight from my financial adviser's market analysis when we met last month.

 

[gmduramax]

There’s also life insurance policies that will basically be a savings account with compound interest, and you can also borrow against your policy for a low %. But if you invest properly you will get 10% a year at least.

 

[2004LB7]

Like I said I hate paying interest and you have to account for inflation. I like a guaranteed $64k in savings. Then he also has an extra $720 a month he can start investing.
You have very valid points and in the long run the odds are in your favor. Even at the markets average 10% returns you take away 4.25% in interest payments and min 3% inflation. Your looking at 2.75% gains. That 2.75% just isnt enough for me to dump everything in the market. Maybe do both... The only right answer is what Jason is most comfortable with. For sure that last thing he should be doing is sitting on that money in his savings for much longer. Seriously don't wait a year to make a decision.

I'm sitting on quite a bit of money in my savings right now waiting on the midterm elections to be final. Once they are I most likely will be investing in the market hoping to take advantage of some gains.

Unless some outlandish things happen just right and Trump ends up president here shortly. I doubt we will see any decent gains soon. Best we can realistically hope for is the Republicans take the house and senate. No that's not because of my political bias. That's straight from my financial adviser's market analysis when we met last month.

damn, now you got me thinking again. the longer I wait the more I loose out on paying additional mortgage interest and loose again by inflation eating away at the savings.

I think I'm going to have to get ahold of my IRA manager and see what kind of information I can get for market predictions and advice on putting more in my IRA. then based on that I might be able to compare it to paying off the mortgage early

 

[036.6turbo]

Where are you guys out of? the cement shortage finally caught back up here about 2 months ago.

S.E. Michigan.

 

[Chevy1925]

damn, now you got me thinking again. the longer I wait the more I loose out on paying additional mortgage interest and loose again by inflation eating away at the savings.

I think I'm going to have to get ahold of my IRA manager and see what kind of information I can get for market predictions and advice on putting more in my IRA. then based on that I might be able to compare it to paying off the mortgage early

When do you want to retire?

 

[Chevy1925]

S.E. Michigan.

Aaaahhhh. Wouldn’t think you guys would have that issue.

 

[TheBac]

Hmm...havent heard of a concrete shortage from the place I deliver to, other than they dont have enough drivers.

Im finding that if I were to get my CDL, I wouldnt have an problem finding work after I retire. Not that I want to drive for a living again.....

 

[2004LB7]

When do you want to retire?

yesterday but we all know that didn't happen. if i could retire at 60 I'd probably be doing alright. I don't really have any set date but I definitely don't want to work till I am old and busted up and can't enjoy it

 

[68ss]

S.E. Michigan.

Cement is tough to get here in Savannah,GA

 

[Dozerboy]

Hmm...havent heard of a concrete shortage from the place I deliver to, other than they dont have enough drivers.

Im finding that if I were to get my CDL, I wouldnt have an problem finding work after I retire. Not that I want to drive for a living again.....

I know a lot of people that retire and they start driving school busses. Seems like districts are always looking for school bus drivers everywhere I've ever been.

 

[Chevy1925]

I know a lot of people that retire and they start driving school busses. Seems like districts are always looking for school bus drivers everywhere I've ever been.

there is no damn way id ever drive a school bus. i rode a bus that the kids make drivers quit before the school finally got the balls to kick them off it.

 

[TheBac]

I know a lot of people that retire and they start driving school busses. Seems like districts are always looking for school bus drivers everywhere I've ever been.

No no no no --- emphatic no --- no no no no

I like that my cargo does NOT talk back.

 

[TheBac]

Got to hang out with my daughter today. I always like "hangin' with Hannah".

One of my co-worker friends happened to stop by to deliver a package, it was nice to introduce my daughter to my friend.

Han nvited me to come along to look at wedding dresses on Thursday, as Mom isnt available. I looked at her like, "What? Me?" when she asked.

 

[Chevy1925]

Got to hang out with my daughter today. I always like "hangin' with Hannah".

One of my co-worker friends happened to stop by to deliver a package, it was nice to introduce my daughter to my friend.

Han nvited me to come along to look at wedding dresses on Thursday, as Mom isnt available. I looked at her like, "What? Me?" when she asked.

Well?? You goin??

 

[TheBac]

Of course I am!

James, my daughter and wife came home Sunday from dress shopping. They both immediately went upstairs to Hannah's old room, and were up there for an hour while I was watching the Lions. After the game, I went upstairs and saw my daughter trying on my wife's wedding dress. She was stunning.

 

[036.6turbo]

Aaaahhhh. Wouldn’t think you guys would have that issue.

Hmm...havent heard of a concrete shortage from the place I deliver to, other than they dont have enough drivers.

Im finding that if I were to get my CDL, I wouldnt have an problem finding work after I retire. Not that I want to drive for a living again.....

Story is the last (3) bulk container ships carrying portland cement powder that docked in Bay City Mich., were allocated to Dan's Excavating. The company trying to finish up the I-69 / I-475 projects.

My concrete contractor had planned to use Modern Concrete in Metamora Mich, right on M24. Modern shut down due to lack of portland. They cancelled all orders scheduled for this week. Sucks because these mild temps are not going to last into next week.

We were scheduled to pour Monday, then Wednesday (today). Now we're scheduled for 11/15.

I'm concerned about the lower temps, my guy assures me it will not be a problem.

 

[lutzjk913]

Story is the last (3) bulk container ships carrying portland cement powder that docked in Bay City Mich., were allocated to Dan's Excavating. The company trying to finish up the I-69 / I-475 projects.

My concrete contractor had planned to use Modern Concrete in Metamora Mich, right on M24. Modern shut down due to lack of portland. They cancelled all orders scheduled for this week. Sucks because these mild temps are not going to last into next week.

We were scheduled to pour Monday, then Wednesday (today). Now we're scheduled for 11/15.

I'm concerned about the lower temps, my guy assures me it will not be a problem.

How low will it be?

I was worried about lower temps when they poured my pad also in January and the guys said we got this. Lol.