Inflation .... whats your thoughts on todays Markets?

Yngdmax92

Active member
Sep 26, 2013
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You sound like a broker who went thru coaching on how to keep people in market...

The world is in the beginnings of a large conflagration, chip shortage is war along with several other shortages, of which there is no actual shortage of said products. It's just disruption and it's about to get a lot worse, those deeply invested will take large losses and deflationary period will follow. If you don't think history predicts the future you need to read more...

the rich are most definitely dumping money into high dividends right now, but they also will sell at the right time and have piles of cash. and even if they dont hit the highs, they will get the average high atleast. Im wondering where we will be at in lets say 8-10 months from now
 

NC-smokinlmm

<<<Future tuna killer
May 29, 2011
5,195
360
83
At Da Beach
Lower across the board, everything follows residential real estate and we all know that it's inflated way worse than 08. It's going to break when eviction/forcloser moratorium is removed, market has been missing 26% of its inventory, that has made home prices go nuts. Once these forclosers hit the market the existing inventory will take price hits and comeback to reality bc of good old competion for buyers not the other way around like its been for past 18 months...
 

Benny315

Benny
Feb 11, 2019
86
3
8
Backwoods, Savannah, NY
i think its like that with motorsports, machines, vehicles and so on because they are still kind of behind with producing the right amount of vehicles. i still dont think any manufacture is up to full tilt yet with production. people still dont want to work. Here in new york they are really trying to extend this extra money earnings another year. i pray that doesnt happen.
You got that right.! Our shop has been interviewing/weld testing every couple weeks. The guys coming in are working already, so we figure they are using us as leverage for more money at thier current job.
Really doesn't help when you hear on the radio Byrne Dairy is hiring/startingat $18/hour, walmart and other non-skilled jobs also.
My GF had took covid leave wayy back when it started, she bareley made bills then. Now she still sits at home not even thinking of going back to work and thanks to goverment handouts she sitting on $30k cash. I never got one stimulas check, and been working the whole time.
 

down_hiller

Member
Oct 28, 2016
34
4
8
Yep it seems like everyone is hiring and cant find people. Its hard to compete with the government that pays you to sit at home.
 

Chevy1925

don't know sh!t about IFS
Staff member
Oct 21, 2009
21,655
5,803
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Phoenix Az
I’m going to make a quick statement.

These type threads usually don’t end well or last long. Be respectful to one another and don’t resort to putting anyone down. I’m already starting to see some posts head that way.

Act like the grown ass men you are and this thread can keep rolling. If it progresses farther than it has in a negative manor, the thread will go.
 

Trimox

Member
Aug 31, 2017
156
14
18
Start off by saying idk where i should have put this but i thought it would be a good topic to bring about. Any body else have an idea of when this fake market is going to pop. Common sense is telling me to trim up on my spending's and hold on to it for a while, economists and realtors personally are saying they dont see this dropping anytime soon. What do you think?

I will go back to the OP and ask a few questions.

Are you spending beyond your means as of right now?
Meaning are you still making all your payments for living expenses and still have money that you put towards savings.

Who are these economists and realtors that you speak of?
By this I mean are these people trying to sell something or are they profiting off of their statement in anyway.

As for when the market will pop, IT WILL. If anybody knew for sure they would not be in the game because they learned from the last pop. That is what life is, ride the waves and plan for the best even the tidal waves that show up over and over.

I don't know your situation as far as age or money. If you want steady growth learn about the investments buy and hold. Good investments always make money over time and will bounce back from dips.
 

Yngdmax92

Active member
Sep 26, 2013
962
44
28
I will go back to the OP and ask a few questions.

Are you spending beyond your means as of right now?
Meaning are you still making all your payments for living expenses and still have money that you put towards savings.

Who are these economists and realtors that you speak of?
By this I mean are these people trying to sell something or are they profiting off of their statement in anyway.

As for when the market will pop, IT WILL. If anybody knew for sure they would not be in the game because they learned from the last pop. That is what life is, ride the waves and plan for the best even the tidal waves that show up over and over.

I don't know your situation as far as age or money. If you want steady growth learn about the investments buy and hold. Good investments always make money over time and will bounce back from dips.

i was more or less asking a generic question to get some conversation going about the topic. i am currently 29. i dont really spend to much, more or less i WANT to spend to much. I own my own home, have no vehicle payments. But id like to build a garage (budget 30k) and buy a new excavator because i just sold mine and it was to small for my line of work i was doing and have that budgeted at (30-40k). i work for the air force and do dirt work and diesel repairs on the side. The economy as a whole interest me. i like to pay attention to it and learn a few things and like to talk to people about it to get there input and opinions because well it gets you thinking.

The economists that i speak of are generic. They are mostly investors as i know a few of them and we always talk about the market, and the realtors of course will be telling you that stuff too because well they want you to buy the homes that they are trying to sell...... but i have a few personal friends that are realtors that weren't trying to sell me a house and we striked up the conversation and that's what i got out of it.


i
 

Ron Nielson

Active member
Oct 11, 2009
760
141
43
Berryton, KS
The most profitable way I have found personally to invest is to find the right advisor. They all get paid, one way or the other. Here are the 2 that I pay for, each about $50 per year: Paul Mampilly's Profits Unlimited and The Motley Fool's Stock Advisor. These are the low cost advisory letters from each of those services. They give you the stocks to buy, and they tell you when to sell those stocks. Both are key to profitable investing. They have other advisories that cost upwards of $5K per year, but you don't need those. They give you at least 1 new stock pick per month, plus their entire portfolio of already recommended stocks. Buy and hold is the order of the day for 1-3 years at a MINIMUM because stocks go up AND stocks go down, much like the price of diesel pickup trucks.

In August of 2009, no one wanted diesel pickups and I bought my 2008 long bed crew cab LT2 for $22.6K, way less than the original purchaser paid just 6 months previously. The key thing here is that you BUY when prices are LOW, then wait until prices are HIGH and then SELL. There will likely be several ups and downs during this time. You BUY stocks when no one else wants to keep their shares and prices are low or companies with significant potential are starting to grow. The key thing is to buy GOOD stocks, and these advisors have proven that overall, they outpace the market something near 4X over a number of years. And don't buy ANY investment that you don't thoroughly understand. I don't understand Bitcoin or other such investments, and although I understand the trading strategy of options, I don't invest in those either.

If you don't want individual stocks, post #8 is great advice. This ETF is an S&P 500 index fund. Any similar fund is a great, no-brainer, low-cost investment in 500 huge, profitable companies, not likely to go broke and highly likely to be profitable for years in the future. Warren Buffet says he told his wife that when he dies, that's exactly what she should do, buy the S&P 500 index and don't look back. 15 % of your income each payday is a great way to start, and if you don't have 15%, try 5% this year, 6% next, 7% ... You get the idea.

Today is a pretty good day in the market. I'm up $94K so far. I've had days where I'm up $125K, and had down days of $175K. When you have those down days, you just have to remember that tomorrow will be better, and if not tomorrow, the next day or the next. Just look at the stock market indexes over time. The trend is ALWAYS UP. The trend is NEVER down. Dips for sure, but not the trend. You just have to wait out the dips until the trend continues.

Get started in investing, keep it up, don't sell when the market is down and you will accumulate wealth you never thought you would have.
 

NC-smokinlmm

<<<Future tuna killer
May 29, 2011
5,195
360
83
At Da Beach
When people pay too much for something (trucks right now) it's bc of inflation, when people get a good deal it's bc of deflation. After recessions and depressions the value of money deflates so it's buying power is greater. This is why you will hear economists say recessions are good and those who know how to ride the wave say hold right now.
 
Jul 29, 2021
2
0
1
Stay invested but shift your 80/20 stocks/bonds investments to a less aggressive portfolio and ride out the next correction. 50/50 or 40/60. The correction will be -20% or so, but as others have said, we don’t know when. One thing floating gains is the amazing amount of sideline cash coming into the markets. This could take us into Q4 before the market spooks heavily.

Most people gained an aggregate 25% over the past year if they stayed invested and diversified, so if the correction happened tomorrow, the average net per person is still likely 5% to the good, albeit over an 18 month period.

The key problem any of us face right now is the next 10 years. Any analyst worth their salt knows equities will generally return less due to lack of new liquidity after 2022 and rising interest rates starting by 2023 will erode bond yields. Gains will be harder to find. So focus on the highest yield vehicles you can find starting mid-next year.

Good luck everyone.


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snowman22

Member
Jan 30, 2018
299
8
18
SoCal
With how much money has been printed and handed out inflation is the inevitable along with some kind of correction. However if the dollar looses too much value the correction won't actually be noticeable in the number on the market as it was in 08'. The dow can stay at 35k as long as the actual dollar takes a 20%+ loss.

I pulled the 100k last year out of my 401k penalty free and stuck a good portion into metals. Gold and silver wont generally make you money, but protect against rapid inflation and I sleep better knowing its in my possession in an absolute collapse situation. My next move will be trying to get a rental property, but again, its the long game for me and not so much what will return well in the next 3 years.
 

NC-smokinlmm

<<<Future tuna killer
May 29, 2011
5,195
360
83
At Da Beach
Think about this guys, if you had 1 million in the bank in 1975 you would get 15% interest on a bank CD that's 150,000 a year for just letting them hold your money. Today you would be lucky to find a 2 or 3% returning CD. That's about to change as interest rates rise. When markets underperform bc of interest rates rising, putting cash into CD's and bonds can net you great gains once the rates have gone up and everything is baked in. This is why people hold cash in situations like this, opportunities to buy paper with good return rates...
 

TexasRedNeck

Diesel Newbie
Nov 25, 2012
56
5
8
Houston, Texas
First. I wouldn’t listen to a word anyone on a forum says about investing, including my comments.
Everyone’s situation is different. Most money managers are working for a living and incented to sell you products more suited for them. An advisor that get paid better when you do better is more objective but you usually have to be high net worth.

If you have a long time horizon then dollar cost averaging into an index fund is not a bad idea for core holdings. Anyone who thinks they can time the market is fooling themselves especially in the era of big tech AI algorithms driving the decisions of the big houses.

Crypto may be the next big thing but for now it’s speculation. 10% of your assets in it would not be too crazy but I’m more cautious. Especially since governments are cracking down on it because they can’t control it and remember the government likes control

I’m moving some into gold as the traditional hedge against inflation.

This will not be transitory or at least not all of it. The M2 money supply is massive and chasing limited assets which is why there’s been so many SPACs this year.

If you are like me and 10 years from retirement it gets more complex because timing is critical.

Remember as I told my girls. You either pay people to use their money or people pay you to use your money. Debt sucks and you should avoid it. Unless it’s a house and most people can’t afford to pay cash for a house but buy less house and get a 15 year loan and build equity sooner.

The US economy is still the best place to invest and will be for the foreseeable future. In other words we suck less.

Diversity in your portfolio, having some cash to take advantage of a dip and staying out of debt is a solid strategy. As you get older and closer to retirement then a shift to more bonds and other stable assets is smart. Hard to survive a 20% market correction in retirement.


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Yngdmax92

Active member
Sep 26, 2013
962
44
28
commercial property has already took a big nose dive, realestate will follow, big things will turn in October.
 

THEFERMANATOR

LEGALLY INSANE
Feb 16, 2009
3,890
43
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ZEPHYRHILLS, FL
Chinas real estate bubble is popping and US based banks and companies are holding the paper. Get ready and hold on...
I hope real estate prices have a correction REAL soon. I need to buy a piece of property, but prices are sky high in Florida from all the people fleeing to here from blue states. It's INSANE what these people from new york, new jersey, kalifornia, and like states are paying here for property site unseen(then complain about what they bought after having NEVER seen it).
 

Yngdmax92

Active member
Sep 26, 2013
962
44
28
I hope real estate prices have a correction REAL soon. I need to buy a piece of property, but prices are sky high in Florida from all the people fleeing to here from blue states. It's INSANE what these people from new york, new jersey, kalifornia, and like states are paying here for property site unseen(then complain about what they bought after having NEVER seen it).
I know Cali is worse then here. But I live in New York, and must I have you know. My grandmother moved down there after she retired and she always told me even when I was a young gun that if you can make it in new York, that you can live any where else in the u.s with no financial problems at all.
 

NC-smokinlmm

<<<Future tuna killer
May 29, 2011
5,195
360
83
At Da Beach
This is China's Lehman brothers fiasco, let's hope it stays in China but we all know it won't. I too would like to purchase another property but with the inflation I'm waiting this one out...