Inflation .... whats your thoughts on todays Markets?

[findthehumorinthings]

Chinas Evergrande actually isn’t the problem. The problem is that it tips the cards to a more systemic problem in the Chinese economy. Everything there gets propped by the Government. Note, I’m speaking from direct past experience trying to start up a company there.

It won’t be just Evergrande. It may not be tomorrow. But in the next couple of years, that government will have more than a couple of Evergrandes fail at the same time. When the losses get upwards of $1t, then the government will struggle to cover and we will be impacted.

As for fall of 2021, it won’t affect us much.

Don’t pull out of the markets altogether. Inflation will consume the value of your cash and make you poorer. Just go for conservative yield and any dividends you can get in the short term. Keep growing those assets.


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[Yngdmax92]

bringing this back up, what are your guys thoughts on things. Still trying to wrap my head around the idea that the dow is holding descent, we havent had a total crash yet, unemployment is down, help wanted sign everywhere, steel is finally on the down turn...

i always thought a crash would come, now i am starting to think we are going to become stagnant for a long time.

 

[08lmm72mm]

We are in a bear market and will probably be so until Q4 2023 . Getting investments to grow will be tough for some and not possible for others depending on what you invest in. High cost of living is cooling off the economy and the work available will follow until late next year.

IMO we won't have a crash like 2008 because this isn't a over leveraged housing market like that. Over priced sure but nowhere near the same.

 

[Yngdmax92]

what do you mean when you say the work available?

 

[gmduramax]

We are in a bear market and will probably be so until Q4 2023 . Getting investments to grow will be tough for some and not possible for others depending on what you invest in. High cost of living is cooling off the economy and the work available will follow until late next year.

IMO we won't have a crash like 2008 because this isn't a over leveraged housing market like that. Over priced sure but nowhere near the same.

It definitely won’t be the same but I’m seeing people tightening their spending. Is it from fear of a crash, or are people running out of money . I seen a lot of people over spending because of the added benefits during the pandemic and they have become accustomed to the lifestyle they were able to afford. But this is based on the restaurants we own, I feel like I at least see quick changes with peoples behaviors when anything happens, stock markets, weather, news. It all changes our busy hours and what people spend. The amount of declined credit cards is up about 10000% compared to the last two years.

 

[Yngdmax92]

my cousin works as a mortgage broker. i asked her how things have been at work, she says the past couple weeks have been completely dead.

 

[08lmm72mm]

what do you mean when you say the work available?

High cost of living is cooling off the economy therfore it will lower the amount of work out there so potential for layoffs, less hours, etc.

 

[2004LB7]

High cost of living is cooling off the economy therfore it will lower the amount of work out there so potential for layoffs, less hours, etc.

this

it will drive to less spending when the money starts to run out. the Biden cash will dry up and people will start to tighten up. this will cause less revenue for business so layoffs will follow. layoffs will create loss of a paycheck so even less spending. more will end up on unemployment and the economy will slow. essentially what we would call a recession

housing will suffer because many buying at todays ridiculous prices will not be able to afford them when layed off. more houses will end up on the market causing the prices to fall. homelessness will increase more then it already is. stocks will be down, etc.

it has the potential to be worse then the 08 recession but it really depends on how it's delt with right now. or more specifically last year. so far it's not looking good

 

[08lmm72mm]

it has the potential to be worse then the 08 recession but it really depends on how it's delt with right now. or more specifically last year. so far it's not looking good

If the movie the big short has taught me anything is that anybody could get a mortgage prior to the 2008 crash I'm hoping banks did better this time because people are dumb.

 

[PureHybrid]

what do you mean when you say the work available?

Around here you'd have to be pretty blind to not find a job making $20/hr with little experience even. Most are just afraid of "work"

my cousin works as a mortgage broker. i asked her how things have been at work, she says the past couple weeks have been completely dead.

Well maybe more people have come to realize mortgage brokers are worthless

High cost of living is cooling off the economy therfore it will lower the amount of work out there so potential for layoffs, less hours, etc.

Only places around here looking to cut back are hospitals, and even then it's only certain areas. The imaging dept my wife works in will probably clamp down on OT and unnecessary schedule openings, but at the same time the Hospital offered RNs a $10k sign on.

My employer is still needing to hire, very big backlog like in 2012-2013

 

[08lmm72mm]

Around here you'd have to be pretty blind to not find a job making $20/hr with little experience even. Most are just afraid of "work"

Well maybe more people have come to realize mortgage brokers are worthless

Only places around here looking to cut back are hospitals, and even then it's only certain areas. The imaging dept my wife works in will probably clamp down on OT and unnecessary schedule openings, but at the same time the Hospital offered RNs a $10k sign on.

My employer is still needing to hire, very big backlog like in 2012-2013

Recessions take time to get into and the after effects as well. What's happening now will probably really be showing its true colors in 9-12 months.

 

[Chevy1925]

We are seeing a slow out here in AZ

flooring installers were 6-8 weeks out, now they are about a week. Major distributors are holding stock for longer. Builders are seeing a slow in purchase rate but vendors are catching up on products. Windows went from 4-6 months to be installed to about a month.

all of it is "catching up" and not due to waiting on products or items. On my side of things, ive not seen the slow as dramatic as AZ based distributors have. out of state, it seems to vary. im betting within a few weeks, we will see a drop in orders.

 

[Yngdmax92]

my family is deep into the scrap industry, and it has slowed waayyyyyy down. non ferrous is next as well. That will follow through to the metal as well, as the price of steel has been going up and is over 200 percent higher then it was 2 years ago.

Around here you'd have to be pretty blind to not find a job making $20/hr with little experience even. Most are just afraid of "work"

Well maybe more people have come to realize mortgage brokers are worthless

Only places around here looking to cut back are hospitals, and even then it's only certain areas. The imaging dept my wife works in will probably clamp down on OT and unnecessary schedule openings, but at the same time the Hospital offered RNs a $10k sign on.

My employer is still needing to hire, very big backlog like in 2012-2013

i think things are slowing because of the interest rates, idk if its because shes a mortgage broker lol

 

[Chevy1925]

Also, for the first time in a year and half, im finally staffing back up on workers. Indeed seems to be the best place we have tried and in teh last 2-3 weeks, weve brought 3 guys on. those positions have been open this whole damn time

 

[Dozerboy]

We are still building like crazy here in Houston. I'm not sure if it will take more time for the down turn to hit us because our oil industry or what. When the last recession hit if didn't affect us until 09.

 

[1FastBrick]

I haven't seen much about it on the standard News outlets but have any of you been following things going on in other markets Like in China and India?

 

[TheBac]

Volume has dropped over the past couple months, so people arent spending like they did the last couple years. '23 is going to get interesting.

 

[gmduramax]

Also, for the first time in a year and half, im finally staffing back up on workers. Indeed seems to be the best place we have tried and in teh last 2-3 weeks, weve brought 3 guys on. those positions have been open this whole damn time

I think you may be lucky we still have a location closed because we can’t staff it. And I’m stuck working weekends. But hey in better news this thread is still going and everyone is getting along

 

[Chevy1925]

I think you may be lucky we still have a location closed because we can’t staff it. And I’m stuck working weekends. But hey in better news this thread is still going and everyone is getting along

now go knock on some damn wood!

 

[2004LB7]

the employees we have hired prior to this whole mess are still with us. the ones we hired in the past year or so are pretty worthless. we've gone through probably a half dozen over a year. most just get up and quit. so.e didn't even last a month. some that lasted longer called out so much it was like they weren't even there

hopefully this new batch will be worth something and will last.

the only good thing about all of it is at least we are getting more people applying then during the pandemic. we where so under staffed but no one wanted to work. only recently did that start to change. I'm wondering it their stimulus money and unemployment is running out so they are forced to look for work