If you are on a "tough" chassis dyno, it will match pretty close with your 1/4 MPH. The ET is all setup & track prep, I never get ET as low as the calculator says, but MPH comes in really close.
The other thing to remember is the HP calculator wants the average HP down the track, not just peak HP. Remember your engine is not at peak HP for the whole run.
For example, my truck put down 660 HP on the Northwest Dyno Circuit chassis dyno, but my track MPH calculates out as ~605 HP. With my peak being 660 HP, I can believe that the engine averages 605 HP as the RPM goes up and down with the gears.